Image: The Canadian Press / BC United Leader Kevin Falcon. BC United has dismissed its third-place position in the most recent political poll released this past week, saying previous polls leading up to the 2013 election were wildly off base. A poll from Liaison Strategies released on Friday (Apr. 12) shows the BC NDP leading the surging B.C. Conservatives by only single digits, 38-34. BC United registered only 16 per cent, following by the BC Greens in fourth at 11 per cent, in the Liaison Strategies poll. 

By Mike Vanden Bosch

BC United

BC United dismisses 3rd place showing in provincial polls, saying polling before 2013 election was way off

Apr 15, 2024 | 6:04 PM

VANCOUVER — BC United has dismissed its third-place position in the most recent political poll released this past week, saying previous polls leading up to the 2013 election were wildly off base.

A poll from Liaison Strategies released on Friday (Apr. 12) shows the BC NDP leading the surging BC Conservatives by only single digits, 38-34. BC United registered only 16 per cent, following by the BC Greens in fourth at 11 per cent, in the Liaison Strategies poll.

In an email sent to supporters Monday (Apr. 15), BC United said its track record of governing matters more than polls.

Image: Polling Canada / Provincial polling showing the BC NDP with only a 4-point lead.

“As we inch closer to the scheduled October 2024 election, we are going to see more and more polls every day,” Team BC United said in an email. “While polls can sometimes be helpful, in B.C.’s political history, they are often dead wrong. That doesn’t mean we don’t take the threat of the popularity of other political parties seriously, but it does mean you cannot trust polling.”

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BC United cited a poll in the Chilliwack Progress from December 21, 2011 showing the NDP with an 11-point lead over the then-BC Liberals and the BC Conservatives. Similarly, CTV reported on June 14, 2012 that the NDP had a remarkable 50 per cent polling mark compared to the BC Liberals (20 per cent) and BC Conservatives (19 per cent).

But Premier Christy Clark defied the polls and won the BC Liberals their fourth consecutive majority government in 2013 by capturing 44.1 per cent of the vote, compared to 39.7 per cent for the NDP and 4.7 per cent for the BC Conservatives.

“Coming off a record-setting fundraising year and quarter, we are poised to bring real solutions to issues facing British Columbians and hit the ground running when we form government,” BC United concluded in its email to supporters. “Unlike the polls, we have a track-record of getting results for British Columbians.”

Back on March 21, Mainstreet Research released its findings from a poll that surveyed B.C. voters about how they would vote in the next provincial and federal elections.

The results show divided support for British Columbians between NDP and Conservatives provincially.

If an election were held today, four in ten would vote for the NDP (39.6 per cent), with over a third saying they would vote for the B.C. Conservatives (34.2 per cent), and less than two in 10 would vote for BC United (14.2 per cent). Less than one in 10 would vote for the B.C. Greens (9.6 per cent).

The gender divide is quite clear in B.C. among voters.

B.C. Conservatives hold a nine point lead among male voters while trailing the NDP by 20 points among female voters.

They also lead in the interior by 10 points, are tied with the NDP on Vancouver Island, and trail the NDP by 11 points in greater Vancouver.

When asked about the next federal election, the results point to a federal Conservative rout with almost 1 in 2 voters supporting Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservatives (49.6 per cent).

The Liberals place second with just over two in ten supporting (22.8 per cent) and the NDP third with just below two in ten (19.4 per cent).

There is a similar gender divide, although the Conservatives lead Liberals among female voters by just 6 points; that lead among male voters is more than 45 points.

Support for the Liberals is highest in greater Vancouver (26 per cent), and highest for the NDP on Vancouver Island (22.7 per cent).

“This deeper dive in to federal vote intentions in B.C. is consistent with our latest national polls” said President & CEO of Mainstreet Quito Maggi. “This is our first snapshot of BC of 2024 and is consistent with our last BC poll of 2023 that showed BC United in third. As voters come closer to an election, that support continues to erode benefitting both the NDP and the BC Conservatives.”

Zach Amin from Q101 in Merritt contributed to this story.