Image: Canadian Press / Conservative Party of B.C. Leader John Rustad. A new poll from Research Co. suggests the governing New Democratic Party and the Conservative Party of B.C. are essentially tied just days before the fall campaign gets underway. According to the Research Co. poll conducted between September 9-11, the B.C. Conservatives hold a staggering 27-point lead in the Fraser Valley. 

By Mike Vanden Bosch

Provincial polling

B.C. election statistically tied, but B.C. Conservatives lead by 27 in the Fraser Valley: Research Co.

Sep 17, 2024 | 12:34 PM

VANCOUVER — A new poll from Research Co. suggests the governing New Democratic Party and the Conservative Party of B.C. are essentially tied just days before the fall campaign gets underway, though regional polling appears to show a clear winner among the two leading parties.

According to the results of an online survey of a representative provincial sample conducted between September 9-11, 44 per cent of decided voters would select the NDP candidate in their riding, a slight edge over 42 per cent of voters who would cast a ballot for the B.C. Conservative. Research Co. pollster Mario Canseco considers this a statistical tie.

In the two months since Research Co. conducted a survey in July 2024, which occurred before former BC United Leader Kevin Falcon suspended his party’s campaign, support for the two main political parties in B.C. has increased. The B.C. NDP have seen a 3-point uptick while the Conservatives have notched a four-point increase.

The BC Green Party, led by Sonia Fursteneau, garners the support of 10 per cent of decided voters, unchanged from July, while three per cent of decided voters would back other parties or independent candidates.

Speaking of independent candidates, several former BC United MLAs have launched campaigns as unaffiliated candidates, which could tilt the race in several of the 93 ridings.

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Among decided voters, the governing NDP maintains an 11-point margin in Metro Vancouver (50-39) and Vancouver Island (44-33), Research Co.’s polling suggests.

Conversely, the B.C. Conservatives hold a staggering 27-point lead, 57-30, over the B.C. NDP among decided voters, Research Co. found. The Conservatives hold smaller leads in Southern B.C. (51-42) and Northern B.C. (42-32).

“The disappearance of BC United has propelled the BC Conservatives to first place in Southern BC, where the race was exceptionally close in July,” said Canseco, president of Research Co. “Conversely, 16% of decided voters in Northern B.C. are willing to support other parties or independent candidates—the highest proportion across all five regions of British Columbia.”

Premier David Eby maintains the highest approval ratings at 51 per cent, a boost of three points since July, but Conservative Leader John Rustad isn’t far behind at 48 per cent, a 9-point increase since July. Furstenau remains the lowest of the three major leaders at 41 per cent, Research Co. found.

The B.C. NDP retains roughly three-quarters (76 per cent) of its base who supported the party under John Horgan in the last provincial election. The B.C. Green Party is only holding on to 43 per cent of its voters from the 2020 ballot, with 41 per cent of them going to the B.C. Conservatives and 14 per cent opting for the governing NDP.

The BC Conservatives are the choice of 60 per cent of voters who cast ballots for BC Liberal candidates in 2020, while 29 per cent of them now prefer the NDP.

For the first time since Research Co. began tracking this question in May 2023, a majority of British Columbians say they would consider casting a ballot for the BC Conservatives (52 per cent, +7) if they nominated a candidate in their constituency. The results on this question are higher for the B.C. New Democrats (55 per cent, +4) and lower for the B.C. Greens (40 per cent, +4).