Image: Conservative Party of B.C. / Conservative Party Leader of B.C. John Rustad (2nd from left) is pictured during a recent visit to Prince Rupert. Chris Sankey, the Conservative candidate for North Coast-Haida Gwaii, is pictured second from right. The latest poll from Research Co. shows the B.C. NDP leading the B.C. Conservatives by only a few points, but the NDP is trailing in the Fraser Valley by 19 points.

By Mike Vanden Bosch

Provincial polling

Support for B.C. Conservatives continues to grow in latest poll; NDP trails by 19 in the Fraser Valley

Jul 30, 2024 | 10:02 AM

CHILLIWACK — The B.C. NDP’s lead over the second-place Conservative Party of B.C. has dwindled to only a few points in the latest provincial polling.

According to the findings of a new Research Co. poll, public support for the B.C. Conservatives now hovers at 38 per cent, trailing the governing B.C. NDP by only three points. Support for the B.C. Conservatives has grown by 5 per cent since a similar poll was conducted in June 2024.

The BC Green Party is languishing in third place with 10% (-5), followed by BC United—currently the Official Opposition in the Legislative Assembly—with 9% (-2). Research Co. says other parties and independent candidates have the support of 2% of decided voters, which is unchanged.

The BC NDP continues to maintain solid leads ahead of the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (44 per cent to 35 per cent) and Vancouver Island (43 per cent to 32 per cent), while the B.C. Conservatives lead the B.C. NDP in Northern B.C. (57 per cent to 31 per cent) and the Fraser Valley (47 per cent to 28 per cent).

“The race has tightened considerably in Southern BC, where the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Conservatives are virtually tied (40% to 38%)” said Mario Canseco, president of Research Co. “In June, the B.C. New Democrats were 11 points ahead of the BC Conservatives in this region of British Columbia (44% to 33%).”

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The BC NDP remains popular among women (47 per cent) and decided voters aged 35-to-54 (42 per cent) and aged 55 and over (49%). The BC Conservatives polling strongest among men (41 per cent) and decided voters aged 18-to-34 (45 per cent).

Fewer than half of British Columbians (48 per cent, -5) approve of the way Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby has handled his duties. The rating is lower for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (39%, -1), BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (35%, -4), and B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon (29%, -3).

There appears to be a significant gender approval gap in the rating of one of the two main party leaders. Half of women in British Columbia (50 per cent) approve of Eby, but just 32 per cent feel the same way about Rustad. Among men, the two leaders post practically the same numbers (Eby 46%, Rustad 47%).

More than two-in-five British Columbians say they would consider voting for the BC New Democrats (51 per cent, -3) or the BC Conservatives (45 per cent, -1) if they ran a candidate in their riding. The proportions are much lower for the BC Greens (36 per cent, -2) and BC United (32 per cent, -2).

When it comes to the biggest issues facing the province, Research Co. found that housing, homelessness and poverty is still the most important issue facing the province for British Columbians (42 per cent, +2), followed by health care (21 per cent, +1), the economy and jobs (14 per cent, -3), the environment (6 per cent, +1) and crime and public safety (5 per cent, -3).

These results are based on an online study conducted by Research Co. between July 23 and July 25 among 801 adults in British Columbia. Research Co. says the data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error, which calculates sample variability, is +/- 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.