National media firm shows Chilliwack trustee with a double-digit lead over NDP incumbent

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338Canada says it is an independently owned media website about politics, polling and electoral projections. It was created and is managed by Philippe J. Fournier, who teaches physics and astrophysics at Cégep de Saint-Laurent, a post-secondary institution in Montréal.

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338Canada.com says Maahs’s chances of winning the Chilliwack North riding are 99 per cent. It rates the Chilliwack North riding as “BCC (B.C. Conservatives) Likely.”

Over in Chilliwack-Cultus Lake, a riding currently held by NDP incumbent Kelli Paddon, Conservative Party of B.C. candidate Aaliya Warbus holds a six-point lead, 39-33, over Paddon as of Friday, July 12, according to 338Canada.com. The website rates the race as “BCC Leaning” and says Warbus has an 84 per cent chance of winning the riding.

And while no polls or projections can be officially validated until results come in on election night, the trend lines from 338Canada.com do seem to align with a poll released earlier this month. According to results from the latest poll from Liaison Strategies on July 8, the B.C. NDP have the support of 40 per cent of B.C. voters, just two points above the Conservatives’ mark of 38 per cent. The B.C. Greens are third with 10 per cent, while the official Opposition B.C. United is in last with only nine per cent.

The poll was conducted at the end of June for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada. It surveyed 1,097 people using interactive voice response technology. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.96 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

“The race continues to narrow with a 2-point lead for the BC NDP over the BC Conservatives,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. “Perhaps more worryingly for the NDP are that the regional numbers have tightened considerably. In Metro Vancouver the NDP lead 42 per cent to 39 per cent for the Conservatives – so they are effectively tied within the regional margin of error.”

Valentin said on Vancouver Island the NDP are leading with 43 per cent followed by the Greens (24 per cent) and Conservatives (23 per cent) effectively tied for second.

“Outside of Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island, it’s the Conservatives who are leading by 15 points over the NDP (48-33),” he stated. “BC United is down three points to just 9 per cent in this survey and fare best in Metro Vancouver where they notch 10 per cent. Increasingly, in most of the province it looks like a two horse race.”

The provincial election will be held Saturday, Oct. 19.