Image: B.C. Conservative Party / The B.C. Conservatives are nipping right on the heels of the governing B.C. New Democratic Party in the latest provincial poll released by a polling outfit.

By Mike Vanden Bosch

Provincial polling

B.C. Conservatives neck in neck with B.C. NDP in latest polling as BC United struggles to gain support

Aug 13, 2024 | 7:44 AM

CHILLIWACK — The B.C. Conservatives are only a few points behind the governing B.C. New Democratic Party in the latest provincial poll released by a polling outfit.

According to a poll released this past week by Leger in which the company sampled 1,001 voters online between August 2-5, 42 per cent of decided voters would cast a vote for Premier David Eby and the NDP, compared to 39 per cent for John Rustad and the B.C. Conservatives. Leger pointed out in its polling that support for Rustad’s Conservatives has risen 13 points since March 2024 when they last garnered support from 26 per cent of voters.

As the B.C. Conservatives have risen, support for the Opposition B.C. United has dwindled from where Kevin Falcon’s party once was. B.C. United now sits at 10 per cent, a far cry from where the party was when it amassed 28 per cent support in January 2023. Sonia Fursteneau’s B.C. Green Party has become almost an irrelevant non-factor with only eight per cent support; it has no candidates in Chilliwack North or Chilliwack-Cultus Lake even as the election is less than 10 weeks away.

Leger says the dramatic rise in support levels for the Conservative Party of B.C. can be attributed to five main factors, one of which involves significant awareness, approval ratings and voter support of John Rustad across all age groups and genders.

Second, Leger said, there is a perception that British Columbia is on the wrong track, and B.C. Conservative voters are far more likely than most to agree with this. As a matter of fact, Leger says its poll results show less than one-third of B.C. residents believe Premier Eby and the B.C. NDP have done a good job governing the province.

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Third, the rise in the popularity of the federal Conservative Party is strongly connected to the same trendlines in B.C., Leger suggests. Fourth, the poor performance of the BC NDP on critical files have left them vulnerable, Leger found, and lastly, the statistical freefall of Kevin Falcon’s B.C. United Party has been astounding, giving right-of-centre voters with only one party in which to turn.

Kevin Falcon’s leader approval rating is 19 per cent, a drop of 10 per cent from just five months ago in March 2024. Eby leads the pack with 44 per cent leader approval, followed by Rustad at 35 per cent.

Housing affordability remains the No. 1 issue in B.C. (and has remained so since May 2016), followed by health care and inflation/rising interest rates, emphasizing the continued economic and social challenges facing the province.

Approval ratings of the current B.C. NDP government on various government files illustrate they are doing well in certain areas but struggle on multiple fronts. The B.C. NDP scores highest among voters on reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, education, relations with the federal government, transportation and the environment. However, their disapproval ratings are high for their handling of homelessness, the opioid crisis, poverty, housing prices, taxes, crime and healthcare in B.C.

On the issue of health care, multiple hospitals throughout the province continue to face intermittent closures in its critical care units, like Mission Memorial Hospital’s emergency department that had no ER doctors for about 14 hours this past weekend, or Nicola Valley Hospital in Merritt, which has seen over a dozen closures of its ER over the past year.